How did the polls get it wrong?

CBC’s poll tracker, Eric Grenier, explains incorrect predictions. To read more: »»» Subscribe to CBC News to watch more videos: …


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How did the polls get it wrong?

Comments 38

  1. news flash.  the polls were not wrong.  Hillary won the election by almost 3 million more votes than trump.  the polls don't deal with the electoral college voting.  the voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and pa.  turned the tide.

  2. Polls weren’t even wrong! MSM was simply delusional! I saw a poll that had Trump up 3 points on MSNBC and next to it they had one that said “adjusted poll.” And it had Hillary up by 4 points, it’s disgraceful. MSM wouldn’t even give you the honest polls! In reality Trump was winning or tied in Wisconsin he had a safe lead in North Carolina, he was tied in Pennsylvania, he was only behind by 1 point in Michigan a gap that was likely closed by Gary Johnson voters. The polls had Trump with 254-309 Electoral Votes MSM had Hillary with 268-332 Electoral Votes.

  3. Don't forget swing voters who didn't want to admit they were voting for Trump. Many said they were undecided but we're really decided not to vote for Hillary.

  4. While the average of the polls had her up by 3% nationally, the Left Wing polls had her up by as much as 11% for the final week of the election (thereby raising the average). The biggest flaw is that the national vote is unpredictable because states run their own elections — and certain ballot initiatives or state races will bring out more voters.

    For instance, Republicans and non-Democrats in California had little reason to show up to the polls. Why? There was no Republican in the Senate race (for California) and 27 house and state races didn't have Republicans either. Consequently, voter participation among Republicans was much lower.

    If you remove California from the race (including ALL votes for Trump, Hillary and the third-party candidates), then Trump won the other 49 states (and D.C.) by more than 1.2 Million votes.

  5. Ok but this reasoning is WRONG again. The Soros "regime" that Hillary was supporting paid for these polls and now these news puppets get told to say " silent voters or incorrect polling" it's clear, very very clear it's collusion and propaganda. Why keep trying to lie? this is what got them here. JUST STOP!

  6. Not 1 of my friends voting Trump were polled but a black friend who was democrat and voting for HRC was polled 6 times! That could also be some of the problem!

  7. The polls didn't get it wrong, they deliberately tried to mislead just like CBC and the rest of the msm tried to do.How many people were killed/hurt because of msm like CBC spinning the story. Shame CBC.

  8. You know, it almost sounds like the polsters were tracking the popular vote and not taking the effect of the Electoral College into account. Remember, in America they vote for which candidate their state will be backing, not for the candidate directly. And each state has a different number of electors, (depending on population.) It grossly distorts the popular vote.

  9. I absolutely do not understand why everyone is so stunned? I have been following this whole thing for over a year now. Not only on the news, which is in many ways bias, but also on social media. I have followed A.D. Bell, an American young black man and many other people. I wanted to get a good feel of how the average person in the US thought of each candidate. For one, many people felt cheated by the Democratic Party over Bernie Sanders. They though he got burned by his own party! And many black Americans felt betrayed by President Obama. After closely following social media for the last 8 months, I could see Trump gaining popularity. Look at the numbers he had at his rallies! And after listening to Mike Pence. Well that is one cool customer. I called Trump, Pence to win by a good margin just by following the average American. I even followed Louis Ferracon. He has a lot of influence. See what he said about Hillary Clinton. Anyway, I'm shocked that everyone else is so shocked by the results.

  10. There are one of two options, perhaps more. The media wasn't educating the public about the polls they reported, they were indoctrinating the public to believe polls that they very well should have known were oversampling Democratic voters to give a false edge to Hillary, probably to discourage people from voting for Trump. If voters felt Trump could not win, perhaps they would not show up at the polls or if they could give the impression that the only people supporting Trump were losers, they would be de-motivated to go vote. A less sinister possibility is that the media is completely out of touch with mainstream America. America is very diverse in just about every way you can imagine. The mainstream media is not very diverse. They have the same education, ideologies, income, goals, etc., etc. The mainstream media should hire blue-collar people who understand that demographic, as well as others to understand the other demographics. They report about diversity, but they don't practice it very well.

  11. If you were to take the time to weed out all of the votes from dead people, people that voted more than once, and illegals I think Trump will also win the popular vote. Had the pollsters and media been reporting honestly, instead of trying to sway the election they would have seen this coming. I did.

  12. Political Correctness culture has created a life in America where people walk around with a personal opinion and a public opinion. You can be punished, lose your job, friends and be threatened for expressing your public thoughts but you vote with your private ones. How the American media and the left portrayed trump supporters is a clear example of why people would be reluctant to express their support publicly and stay in the closet so to speak. As long as that is case, Pollsters are not going to be able to get accurate enough data. Furthermore sample sizes are too small. Many of these polls are based on 1000 people, that works out to an average of 19 people per state to represent the mindset of 320 million people. Gallup was using the same sample sizes back 60 years ago when the population was almost half the size. At a bare minimum the sample size should be at least double the 1960's figure but optimally represent no less than 100 people per state but ideally 200 people per state.. There are too many demographics in each state and differences within the same demographic different states, IE: Hispanic vote, Cubans in Miami vs Mexicans in Arizona. A 19 person per state average is too small to pick up the nuances that make the difference.

  13. 2 things went wrong. 1)The DNC ignored their constituents and forced Hillary on people who clearly preferred Bernie. People felt betrayed by that and voted Trump or 3rd party out of resentment. 2) The bigoted and intolerant neo-liberals with the help of the media; attacked, disparaged and shamed Trump supporters so badly that they had to censor themselves. They told people they were voting for Hillary with every intention to vote against her because of the consequences for being an open trump supporter.

  14. The polls got it wrong by design. If you intentionally marginalize 30% of the population that is in Clinton's least favourable age demographic, you will get inaccurate polls. This can hardly be a shock. If you didn't check the numbers, CBC, you should have, especially as (whatever you may think of Trump) the pro-Clinton American media bias (and the corruption surrounding it) was impossible to ignore. Frankly, CBC's own bias was also pretty glaring.
    I find it a little disingenuous to be saying, "Oh dear, how ever could that have happened?" after the fact, and cobbling together some transparent bullshit explanation for it. The polls were cooked as a means of making angry Sanders supporters think they were alone, but not so far cooked as to make them think they could safely vote independent. I'll let you guess who paid for the BBQ.

  15. The polls got it wrong because the pollsters are no longer trying to get accurate information. Like the MSM, they're in the tank for the Dems and use their platform to try to shape public opinion, rather that reflect it.

  16. I am Hispanic/black american who supported Obama his first election. I found myself going through hard times through the Democratic hold on the oval office. So this time my peers and I stood up. I've worked in both the oilfield and steel industry since the Democrats held the oval office. I've been laid off in the oilfield and watching the steel industry go the same route because of outside trade deals. Hillary wants to open the market even more which means it'll hurt workers like myself even more. I've been paying 25% more in monthly health payments since the new health program got put into place and will have to pay 2x – 3x more if I get laid off from my job or else face costly penalties. (I paid for them from being laid off last time so I know about them very well)
    I'm not a true Trump supporter but I'M MOST DIFFERENTLY NOT FOR HILLARY! You want to know why she lost? It's because not all the people who are pissed are you're stereotypical Republican. A silent voice sometimes speak the loudest…

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